Reading a track record honestly

Lesson 14 of 15 · The trader with a day job · 3 min read

The Results page logs every signal NextShelf finds, with its outcome. Nothing is removed. That's useful only if you read it carefully.

Win rate isn't everything

A method can win 40% of the time and still make money if the wins are bigger than the losses. Another can win 70% and lose money if the losses are huge. Look at the average per signal next to the win rate.

Small samples lie

A stock with 2 signals can show 100% or 0% by pure luck. Trust patterns that hold up over many signals, and use the minimum-signals filter on the win-rate ranking.

Past results aren't a promise

Markets change. A setup that worked in a calm market can struggle in a wild one. The track record tells you how things went, not how they will go.

Key points
  • Read win rate together with the average per signal.
  • Ignore results from just a handful of signals.
  • A track record describes the past, not the future.
Check yourself

Setup A wins 70% but averages -0.4% per signal. Setup B wins 45% and averages +0.8%. Which made money?

Educational content only, not financial advice. See today's setups in NextShelf →